One of the most chilling obstacles to a diplomatic resolution of the US-Iran war is the fear among Iranian officials that they could be assassinated while in the act of negotiating. Israel and the United States have killed multiple senior Iranian leaders throughout the conflict, including more pragmatic figures such as Ali Larijani, the secretary of the supreme national security council. This has created a situation in which potential Iranian interlocutors are reluctant to engage, knowing that being seen to negotiate carries the risk of being targeted.
Israel has reportedly made explicit threats against Iranian officials involved in negotiations. The combination of these threats and the actual killing of senior leaders has left Iran’s diplomatic establishment deeply wary of engaging with Washington. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson captured this mood succinctly, saying his country had “a very catastrophic experience with US diplomacy.” Iran was also attacked twice during previous rounds of negotiations, deepening the sense that talks are used as a cover for military operations.
These concerns form part of the backdrop to Iran’s formal rejection of the US ceasefire proposal on Wednesday. While Tehran submitted its own five-point counter-plan, the willingness of senior officials to sit across from American counterparts remains deeply uncertain. Pakistani and Egyptian officials nonetheless expressed hope that direct talks could begin as early as Friday, with Turkey and Pakistan both being suggested as possible neutral venues.
Trump’s administration insisted that contact was being maintained with Iranian officials at a senior level, despite Iranian denials. The president named Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio, and JD Vance as the US side of the engagement. The Iranian foreign ministry’s denial that any negotiations were taking place underscored the difficulty of publicly owning any engagement with Washington in the current climate.
The fundamental paradox of the situation is stark: the officials most likely to reach a deal are the ones most at risk of being killed for trying. Iran’s leadership has watched the removal of pragmatic voices from its ranks and drawn the logical conclusion that engaging with the US is personally dangerous. Until this dynamic changes, the prospects for a negotiated settlement — however urgently needed — will remain limited.